Pre-session high & low predictions for the oil-correlated Loonie.
USD/CAD moves on the spread between Fed and BoC policy paths and its persistent negative correlation with crude oil prices. The Eaglics model incorporates oil-volatility pass-through and North American session dynamics to forecast the probable daily range ahead of the New York open.
The relative pace of Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada rate decisions is the primary medium term driver of USD/CAD, consistent with how every dollar pair responds to its counterpart central bank.
Canada is a significant net exporter of crude oil, so a rise in oil prices tends to strengthen the Canadian Dollar and push USD/CAD lower, while falling oil prices tend to have the opposite effect.
Canadian jobs and CPI releases are closely watched for their effect on the expected BoC policy path, and surprises against consensus routinely widen the pair's daily range.
As the US leg of a North American pair, major US releases including ISM manufacturing and nonfarm payrolls move USD/CAD with the same weight they carry across every other USD pair.
Because both currencies belong to the same time zone family, the bulk of USD/CAD's range is generated during North American trading hours rather than during the Asian or early European session.
| Session | Share Of Daily Range | Typical Character |
|---|---|---|
| Asian | 10 to 15 percent | Quiet, with limited North American participation during these hours. |
| London | 30 to 35 percent | Early positioning ahead of the New York open, often reacting to overnight oil price moves. |
| New York | 45 to 55 percent | The dominant session, since both the US Dollar and Canadian Dollar trade at full institutional depth only during North American hours. |
A pair with a persistent link to crude oil requires a forecasting process that can separate an oil driven move from a pure interest rate differential move, since the two do not always point in the same direction.
Eaglics incorporates oil volatility pass through directly into the same orthogonalized factor library described in the research framework, alongside the North American session dynamics that concentrate most of USD/CAD's daily range into the New York window.
USD/CAD is forecast ahead of the New York open, when both the US Dollar and Canadian Dollar legs trade at full depth. Oil price volatility is priced directly into the range, so a sharp move in crude is reflected in the forecast rather than treated as noise.
Every entry below was logged in the Eaglics system. Forecast High and Low are the pre-session quantitative outputs. Actual High and Low are the realized session prices. Deviation and accuracy are computed automatically.
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